Rabbits stick to their Carbon Budgets

From Sensors in Schools
Jump to navigation Jump to search

Take the Jump

  • The City of Melbourne is part of a grouping of 100 cities from around the world (C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group) have committed to reducing GHG emissions consistent with a 1.5degC World (67% confidence) [1].
  • Emission targets have been informed by a report titled The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World [2]

C40 Cities and Climate Change Pledges

  • C40 Cities (which include Melbourne and Sydney) have set the following targets
    • 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 (based on 2010 emission levels)
    • net-zero emissions by 2050

Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take

  • These targets are based on good science [3].
    • A 50-55% reduction on CO2 emissions by 2030 based on 2010 levels
    • Staying within a 570 GtCO2 cumulative carbon budget. Budget of 570 GtCO2 emissions from 2018 onward offers a 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, when assessing historical temperature increases from a blend of air and sea-surface temperatures.

Limitations

  • There limitations associated with these targets.
    • During the period of steep mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are not addressed (such as CH4 and N2O)
    • The achievement of net zero emissions to 2050 relies on reforestation and carbon-removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) - so-called Negative emissions. Some of these technologies are in their infancy and unproven at the scale required in the model. If unproven negative emission contributions are removed from the model, then overall CO2 emission reductions need to be greater (the red area of the graph represents negative emissions)