Rabbits stick to their Carbon Budgets

C40 Cities and Climate Change Pledges

• The City of Melbourne is part of a grouping of 100 cities from around the world (C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group) have committed to reducing GHG emissions consistent with a 1.5degC World (67% confidence) [1].
• Emission targets have been informed by a report titled The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World [2]
• C40 Cities (which include Melbourne and Sydney) have set the following targets
  • 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 (based on 2010 emission levels)
  • net-zero emissions by 2050

Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take

• These targets are based on good science [3].
  • A 50-55% reduction on CO2 emissions by 2030 based on 2010 levels
  • Staying within a 570 GtCO2 cumulative carbon budget. Budget of 570 GtCO2 emissions from 2018 onward offers a 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, when assessing historical temperature increases from a blend of air and sea-surface temperatures.

Carbon budget analysis in a Table

• The table below illustrates the remaining carbon budget to keep global warming at 1.5°C (67% confidence) using budgets starting from 2020.
• The remaining global carbon budget was 500 Gt in 2020 and is now 380 Gt in 2023.
• Approximately 40 Gt of global emissions are produced every year. In 2020 this dropped by approximately 7% to 37 Gt due to Covid.
• Australian release 15 tonnes CO2e per person per year. At this rate the carbon budget up to 2050 would be fully expended by 2032.

Transport options based on Assigned Carbon Budget at 2030

• The table above shows that the available carbon budget for Australian's in 2030 will be 3.15 tonnes CO2e per person per year with a 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
• The Transport component of CO2e emissions is approximately 20% of all emissions and will therefore be 630 kg CO2e/year (in 2030).
  • A round trip to Hawaii from Australia (18,000 km) will generate 2.9 tonnes MyClimate. This is about 160 (g.CO2-eq/km)
  • A medium sized car will generate 192 (g.CO2-eq/km) of CO2-equivalent emissions per km. If you travel 10km per day, over a year there will be 700 kg of CO2e emissions (192 g.CO2e/km x 10 km x 365 days in year / 1000 g to kg). Most family cars travel greater distances and average emissions are closer to 3 tonnes per year.
  • Cycling (16 g/km) by comparison would allow 107 km/day of travel (630 kg per year / 365 days in year = 1726 g/day CO2e / 16g/km = 107 km/day)

Limitations

• There limitations associated with these targets.
  • During the period of steep mitigation between 2020 and 2030, non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and not considered.
  • The achievement of net zero emissions to 2050 relies on reforestation and carbon-removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) - so-called Negative emissions. Some of these technologies are in their infancy and unproven at the scale required in the model. If unproven negative emission contributions are removed from the model, then overall CO2 emission reductions need to be greater (the red area of the graph represents negative emissions)

Carbon Offset

• Satellites detect no real climate benefit from 10 years of forest carbon offsets in California [4]

• Australia relies on controversial offsets to meet climate change targets. [5]

• No more excuses: restoring nature is not a silver bullet for global warming, we must cut emissions outright [6]

• Trees aren’t a climate change cure-all – 2 new studies on the life and death of trees in a warming world show why [7]

• Now we know the flaws of carbon offsets, it’s time to get real about climate change [8]

• Climate change: carbon offsetting isn’t working – here’s how to fix it [9]

• Net zero: UK government sued for weak strategy – so here’s what makes a good climate change plan [10]

• Soaring demand for trees exposes carbon credits 'minefield' in fight to offset Australia's emissions [11]

• Insider blows whistle on Australia's greenhouse gas reduction schemes [12]

Net-Zero Emissions

• Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap [13]

• Half of Australia’s biggest companies have net-zero emissions plans, but climate action may come too late [14]

• How not to solve the climate change problem [15]

• Relying on carbon capture to solve the climate crisis risks pushing our problems into the next generation’s path [16]

Reporting Rules

• Clearer rules on reporting companies’ climate risks could soon put us on a path to decarbonising corporate Australia [17]

Not meeting Commitments

Davos 2023: Special Address by António Guterres, Secretary-General of the United Nations (18 Jan 2023) [18] Summary of address

• More and more businesses are making net zero commitments. But benchmarks and criteria are often dubious or murky. This misleads consumers, investors and regulators with false narratives. It feeds a culture of climate misinformation and confusion. And it leaves the door wide open to greenwashing. My Expert Group on Net-Zero emissions commitments recently issued a how-to guide for credible, accountable net-zero pledges [19].
• Here at Davos, I call on all corporate leaders to act on it. Put forward credible and transparent transition plans on how to achieve net zero – and submit those plans before the end of this year. The transition to net zero must be grounded in real emissions cuts – and not rely on carbon credits and shadow markets.

Detailed Recommendations

• All non-state actors must reduce emissions as fast as possible, aligning or exceeding national targets, roadmaps and timelines. Those that have the capacity to move faster than a 50% reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050 should do so, while some developing country non-state actors may require more support on their path to net zero.
• Non-state actors must publicly disclose and report on progress against those targets and plans, ensuring that any claims of being net zero or net zero aligned are based on actions, not just announcements.
• Its pledge and progress reporting should cover all scope emissions and all operations along its value chain in all jurisdictions (any omission needs to be properly reported);
• It is demonstrating progress by achieving or exceeding its interim targets with reports that are verified by a credible, independent third party based on publicly available data.

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