Rabbits stick to their Carbon Budgets

C40 Cities and Climate Change Pledges

• The City of Melbourne is part of a grouping of 100 cities from around the world (C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group) have committed to reducing GHG emissions consistent with a 1.5degC World (67% confidence) [1].
• Emission targets have been informed by a report titled The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World [2]
• C40 Cities (which include Melbourne and Sydney) have set the following targets
  • 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 (based on 2010 emission levels)
  • net-zero emissions by 2050

Climate math: What a 1.5-degree pathway would take

• These targets are based on good science [3].
  • A 50-55% reduction on CO2 emissions by 2030 based on 2010 levels
  • Staying within a 570 GtCO2 cumulative carbon budget. Budget of 570 GtCO2 emissions from 2018 onward offers a 66% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, when assessing historical temperature increases from a blend of air and sea-surface temperatures.

Limitations

• There limitations associated with these targets.
  • During the period of steep mitigation between 2020 and 2030, non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and not considered.
  • The achievement of net zero emissions to 2050 relies on reforestation and carbon-removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) - so-called Negative emissions. Some of these technologies are in their infancy and unproven at the scale required in the model. If unproven negative emission contributions are removed from the model, then overall CO2 emission reductions need to be greater (the red area of the graph represents negative emissions)

Carbon Offset

• Satellites detect no real climate benefit from 10 years of forest carbon offsets in California [4]

• Australia relies on controversial offsets to meet climate change targets. [5]

• No more excuses: restoring nature is not a silver bullet for global warming, we must cut emissions outright [6]

• Trees aren’t a climate change cure-all – 2 new studies on the life and death of trees in a warming world show why [7]

• Now we know the flaws of carbon offsets, it’s time to get real about climate change [8]

• Climate change: carbon offsetting isn’t working – here’s how to fix it [9]

• Net zero: UK government sued for weak strategy – so here’s what makes a good climate change plan [10]

Net-Zero Emissions

• Climate scientists: concept of net zero is a dangerous trap [11]

• Half of Australia’s biggest companies have net-zero emissions plans, but climate action may come too late [12]

Reporting Rules

• Clearer rules on reporting companies’ climate risks could soon put us on a path to decarbonising corporate Australia [13]

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